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Global oil demand, supply, oil market balance and required amounts of OPEC crude.
World oil Demand: Global oil demand growth in 2017 was revised upward by 40 tb/d to stand at 1.57 mb/d, averaging 96.99 mb/d for 2017. The upward revision was broadly a result of better-than-expected data for OECD Europe and China. For 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.53 mb/d, following a marginal upward adjustment compared to last month’s report, with global oil demand now expected to reach 98.51 mb/d. Non-OECD economies will contribute 1.24 mb/d of the demand growth expected in 2018.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2017 has been revised marginally lower to now stand at 0.77 mb/d. The adjustments were mostly due to revisions in the actual data for 4Q17. For 2018, non-OPEC supply growth was revised up by 0.16 mb/d to now stand at 1.15 mb/d, driven by mostly higher growth expectations for the US and Canada. OPEC NGLs are also expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, compared to 0.17 mb/d growth in the previous year. OPEC production in December, according to secondary sources, is expected to increase by 42 tb/d to average 32.42 mb/d.
World Economy The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.7% for both 2017 and 2018. US growth was revised up in 2018 to 2.6%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in the Euro-zone was lifted to 2.4% in 2017, followed by 2.1% in 2018. Similarly, Japan’s growth was lifted in both 2017 and 2018 to now stand at 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. India’s somewhat softening momentum led to a slight downward revision to 7.2% in 2018, after growth of 6.5% in 2017. China’s growth is expected to remain at 6.8% in 2017 and 6.5% in 2018.
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