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Published by source: 12 December 2018
Expected next release: 21 December 2019
Balance=OPEC crude oil production-Difference (a-b)
Global oil demand, supply, oil market balance and required amounts of OPEC crude.
World oil Demand:
World oil demand growth in 2018 was revised downward by around 20 tb/d, primarily as a result of the slower-than-expected performance by non-OECD Latin America and the Middle East during 2Q18. Hence, world oil demand growth is now pegged at 1.62 mb/d, with total global consumption at 98.82 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised down by 0.06 mb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.56 mb/d, mainly due to a downward adjustment in the supply forecast for Brazil, the UK, India, Malaysia and China on lower-than-expected output in 2H18, which was partially offset by an upward revision in US supply. Y-o-y growth was also revised down by 0.06 mb/d to now stand at 2.02 mb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and the UK are expected to be the main drivers for y-o-y growth, while Mexico and Norway will show the largest declines.
Global economic growth forecasts remain robust for 2018 and 2019, at 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. While the growth levels are unchanged from last month, a number of offsetting developments, particularly rising challenges in some emerging and developing economies, are skewing the current global economic growth risk forecast to the downside. Rising trade tensions, and the consequences of further potential monetary tightening by G4 central banks, in combination with rising global debt levels, are additional concerns