International Monetary Fund

The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.

APD Regional Economic Outlook (REO) provides information on recent economic developments and prospects for countries in Asia and Pacific. Data for the REO for Asia and Pacific is prepared in conjunction with the semi-annual World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercises, spring and fall. Data are consistent with the projections underlying the WEO. REO aggregate data may differ from WEO aggregates due to differences in group membership. Composite data for country groups are weighted averages of data for individual countries. Arithmetic weighted averages are used for all concepts except for inflation and broad money, for which geometric averages are used. PPP GDP weights from the WEO database are used for the aggregation of real GDP growth, real non-oil GDP growth, real per capita GDP growth, investment, national savings, broad money, claims on the nonfinancial private sector, and real and nominal effective exchange rates. Aggregates for other concepts are weighted by GDP in U.S. dollars at market exchange rates.

Data cited at: Balance of Payments, The International Monetary Fund. The Balance of Payments provides a framework that is applicable for a range of economies, from the smallest and least developed economies to the more advanced and complex economies. As a result, it is recognized that some items may not be relevant in all cases. The balance of payments is a statistical statement that summarizes transactions between residents and nonresidents during a period. It consists of the goods and services account, the primary income account, the secondary income account, the capital account, and the financial account. Contains balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) data of individual countries, jurisdictions, and other reporting entities, and regional and world totals for major components of the balance of payments. Both balance of payments and IIP data are presented in accordance with the standard components of the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, BPM6. Balance of payments data are available for approximately 192 economies and international investment position data are available for approximately 152 economies.

Balance of Payments of Somalia

Data cited at: Balance of Payments(BOP) and International Investment Position(IIP), World and Regional Aggregates, The International Monetary Fund BOPSY Global Tables aggregate country data by major balance of payments components and by international investment position (IIP) data for (i) Net IIP and (ii) Total Assets and Total Liabilities. Data for countries, country groups, and the world are provided. In addition to data reported by countries as shown in BOPSY, balance of payments data are provided for international organizations in BOPSY Global Tables. The BOPSY Global Tables include, in addition to reported data, data derived in a few instances indirectly from published sources.

Accounts of the Central Bank of Somalia

Note: For 2016, its average value from 2000-2016.

Consolidated Commercial Banks Balance Sheet of Somalia (Estimated Values)

Data cited at: Consumer price indexes, The International Monetary Fund Consumer price indexes (CPIs) are index numbers that measure changes in the prices of goods and services purchased or otherwise acquired by households, which households use directly, or indirectly, to satisfy their own needs and wants. In practice, most CPIs are calculated as weighted averages of the percentage price changes for a specified set, or ‘‘basket’’, of consumer products, the weights reflecting their relative importance in household consumption in some period. CPIs are widely used to index pensions and social security benefits. CPIs are also used to index other payments, such as interest payments or rents, or the prices of bonds. CPIs are also commonly used as a proxy for the general rate of inflation, even though they measure only consumer inflation. They are used by some governments or central banks to set inflation targets for purposes of monetary policy. The price data collected for CPI purposes can also be used to compile other indices, such as the price indices used to deflate household consumption expenditures in national accounts, or the purchasing power parities used to compare real levels of consumption in different countries.

Data cited at: Coordinated Direct Investment Survey, The International Monetary Fund. The CDIS database presents detailed data on "inward" direct investment positions (i.e., direct investment into the reporting economy) cross-classified by economy of immediate investor, and data on "outward" direct investment positions (i.e., direct investment abroad by the reporting economy) cross-classified by economy of immediate investment. The CDIS database contains breakdowns of direct investment position data, including, in most instances, separate data on net equity and net debt positions, as well as tables that present "mirror" data (i.e., tables in which data from the reporting economy are shown side-by-side with the data obtained from all other counterpart reporting economies).

Data cited at: Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), The International Monetary Fund. The Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) is a voluntary data collection exercise conducted under the auspices of the IMF. An economy provides data on its holdings of portfolio investment securities (data are separately requested for equity and investment fund shares, long-term debt instruments, and short-term debt instruments).   Worldwide portfolio holdings of equity and investment fund shares (31 USD trillion) at end-2017 surpasses holdings of debt securities (29.7 USD trillion). After the peak of the financial crisis in 2008, the annual growth rate of equity holdings has exceeded substantially that for debt securities holdings. That pattern is similar in all the economies with the largest cross border portfolio assets and liabilities. As per G20 emerging economies, while the holdings of equity and investment fund shares had already been consistently higher than those of debt securities, during the last five years the gap has widened even further.

Global growth is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions of the world. The distribution of risks to near-term global growth has become more balanced relative to the October World Economic Outlook but is still tilted to the downside. The decline in oil prices could boost activity more than expected. Geopolitical tensions continue to pose threats, and risks of disruptive shifts in asset prices remain relevant. In some advanced economies, protracted low inflation or deflation also pose risks to activity. The chapter takes a region-by-region look at the recent development in the world economy and the outlook for 2015, with particular attention to notable development in countries within each region.

COFR presents data on fiscal transparency. It provides an overview of fiscal reporting, including whether fiscal data are available for all of the general government, whether the government reports a balance sheet, and whether spending and revenue are reported on a cash or accrual basis. It also derives specific indices of the coverage of public institutions, fiscal flows, and fiscal stocks.

The database includes all systemic banking, currency, and sovereign debt crises during the period 1970-2011. The data show some striking differences in policy responses between advanced and emerging economies as well as many similarities between past and ongoing crises. Note: Laeven, Luc and Fabian Valencia, 2010, Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, IMF working paper 10/146.

The database includes all systemic banking, currency, and sovereign debt crises during the period 1970-2011. The data show some striking differences in policy responses between advanced and emerging economies as well as many similarities between past and ongoing crises. Note: Laeven, Luc and Fabian Valencia, 2010, Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, IMF working paper 10/146.

The Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves(COFER) database is managed by the Statistics Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The COFER website disseminates end-of-period quarterly data on COFER in the format of statistical aggregates. The currencies identified in COFER are: U.S. dollar, Pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Euro.All other currencies are indistinguishably included in the category of “other currencies.”Prior to the introduction of Euro in 1999,several European currencies were separately identified in COFER. COFER data are reported to the IMF on a voluntary and confidential basis. COFER data for individual countries are strictly confidential. The data published on this website are aggregates for each currency for three groupings of countries (total,advanced economies, and emerging and developing economies).

Daily chokepoint transit calls and preliminary transit trade volume estimates for 13 major chokepoints worldwide. These estimates are based on satellite-captured signals on 120,000 ships worldwide, harnessing the power of big data analytics.

Daily port activity and preliminary trade volume estimates for 1,388 ports worldwide. These estimates are based on satellite-captured signals on 120,000 ships worldwide, harnessing the power of big data analytics. 

Data cited at: Direction of Trade Statistics, The International Monetary Fund. The Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) presents current figures on the value of merchandise exports and imports dis-aggregated according to a country's primary trading partners. Area and world aggregates are included in the display of trade flows between major areas of the world. Reported data is supplemented by estimates whenever such data is not available or current. Imports are reported on a cost, insurance and freight (CIF) basis and exports are reported on a free on board (FOB) basis, with the exception of a few countries for which imports are also available FOB. Time series data includes estimates derived from reports of partner countries for non-reporting and slow-reporting countries.

Economic and Social Indicators of Somalia, 1988

12-month Ahead (Percent)

Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 

Recent exchange rate movements have been unusually large, triggering a debate regarding their likely effects on trade. Historical experience in advanced and emerging market and developing economies suggests that exchange rate movements typically have sizable effects on export and import volumes. A 10 percent real effective depreciation in an economy’s currency is associated with a rise in real net exports of, on average, 1.5 percent of GDP, with substantial cross-country variation around this average. Although these effects fully materialize over a number of years, much of the adjustment occurs in the first year. The boost to exports associated with currency depreciation is found to be largest in countries with initial economic slack and with domestic financial systems that are operating normally. Some evidence suggests that the rise of global value chains has weakened the relationship between exchange rates and trade in intermediate products used as inputs into other economies’ exports. However, the bulk of global trade still consists of conventional trade, and there is little evidence of a general trend toward disconnect between exchange rates and total exports and imports.

The Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) were developed by the IMF, together with the international community, with aim of supporting analysis and assessing strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems. The Statistics Department of the IMF, disseminates data and metadata on selected FSIs provided by participating countries. For a description of the various FSIs, as well as the consolidation basis, consolidation adjustments, and accounting rules followed, please refer to the concepts and definitions document in the document tab. Reporting countries compile FSI data using different methodologies, which may also vary for different points in time for the same country. Users are advised to consult the accompanying metadata to conduct more meaning cross-country comparisons or to assess the evolution of a given FSI for any of the countries.

Data cited at: Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI), Reporting Entities, The International Monetary Fund. The Reporting entities dataset provides information on the structure, size, and coverage of the financial institutions that are used for compiling financial soundness indicators. It provides a better understanding of the structure of the reporting entities in terms of the type of institution, number of entities, size of assets, and type of control. Reporting entities are domestically incorporated entities but are divided into two: domestically controlled and foreign controlled. The concepts of residency criterion and control are determined based on FSI Guide methodology which is in line with international best practices such as Systems of National Accounts. Data on reporting entities cover the branches,

The IMF’s Fiscal Decentralization Dataset compiles indicators widely used by academics and policymakers to assess recent trends, conduct benchmark analysis, and identify the causes, and consequences of fiscal decentralization for a global sample of IMF members.   Fiscal decentralization indicators are computed using fiscal data on flows and stocks of the general government sector disaggregated between central and subnational government subsectors (state/provincial/regional, and local) measured within the framework of the Government Finance Statistics Manual, 2014.

The data is given for the months January to August which corresponds to the year 2015.

The Global Debt Database (GDD) is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor. The dataset includes total gross debt of the (private and public) non financial sector for an unbalanced panel of 190 advanced economies, emerging market economies and low-income countries, dating back to 1950. For more details on the methodology and definitions, please refer to Mbaye, Moreno Badia and Chae (2018). 

The energy subsidy estimates reported here are based on the broad notion of post-tax subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental damage and an additional tax applied to all consumption goods to raise government revenues. Pre-tax subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs, are also reported as a component of post-tax subsidies. These subsidies will not necessarily coincide with definitions used by governments or with their reported subsidy numbers. The energy subsidy estimates are not available for the following countries in 2013: Bhutan, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Eritrea, Fiji, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kiribati, Kosovo, Lao P.D.R., Liberia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia, Niger, Palau, Samoa, San Marino, São Tomé and Príncipe, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, South Sudan, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. In 2015, estimates are not available for two addtional countries: Burundi and Togo.

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2023: Financial and Climate Policies for a High-Interest-Rate Era

This dataset provides a comprehensive view of the functions, or socioeconomic objectives, that government aims to achieve through various kinds of expenditure, comprising detailed classifications of general public service, defense, public order and safety, economic affairs, environment protection, housing and community services, health, recreation, culture and religion, education, and social protection services.

This dataset provides a comprehensive view of government expense, including detailed classifications of compensation of employees, use of goods and services, consumption of fixed capital, interest payable, subsidies payable, grants payable, social benefits, and other expense.

This dataset provides a comprehensive view of government revenue, including detailed classifications of taxes, social contributions, grants receivable, and other revenue.

This dataset provides an overview of government’s cash flows, as summarized in the Statement of Sources and Uses of Cash, for those countries compiling GFS on a noncash basis (for example, an accrual basis) and are also including a cash flow statement.

This dataset provides a comprehensive view of the integrated balance sheet. In other words, changes between the opening and closing stock positions in assets and liabilities are explained through transactions, holding gains/losses, and other changes in the volume of assets and liabilities. Data on net investment in non-financial assets – a component of total expenditure – on its components and related stock positions are provided.

This dataset provides an overview of government operations and stock positions, as well as several derived balances. The Statement of Government Operations shows revenue and expense, with their main components, the operating balance and net lending/net borrowing, as well as financing. The Balance sheet shows stock positions in assets and liabilities, with their main components, as well as net worth and net financial worth. In addition, data on gross debt and net debt are included.

The Historical Public Debt Database contains unbalanced panel data on Gross Domestic Product, Gross Government Debt, and Gross Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio for 187 countries. The series spans the years 1800 through 2015 although each country’s data depends on its date of independence and data availability. The database was constructed by bringing together a number of other datasets and information from original sources. For the most recent years, the data are linked to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database to facilitate regular updates.

The Primary Commodity Price data are updated monthly. Note: Actual prices through 2017-Jul-13   The Primary Commodity Price data are updated monthly. Update available in: https://knoema.com/IMFPCP2015Apr/imf-primary-commodity-prices-monthly-update

Data cited at: IMF Exchange Rates, The International Monetary Fund.   

Covering 187 countries including most low-income countries, the toolkit provides indicators on export product diversification and export product quality from 1962-2014. The measures in this toolkit are based on an updated version of the UN–NBER dataset, which harmonizes COMTRADE bilateral trade flow data at the 4-digit SITC (Rev. 1) level. The export diversification and quality database was developed by IMF staff under an IMF-DFID research collaboration. The Export Diversification Database has three main indicators: the Export Diversification Index, the Extensive Margin, and the Intensive Margin. Higher values ​​for the all three indices indicate lower diversification. The Export Quality Database contains export quality measures across different aggregation levels of export products. Higher values ​​for the quality indices indicate higher quality levels.

The Fiscal Monitor surveys and analyzes the latest public finance developments, it updates fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. 

The FAS is the key source of global supply-side data on financial inclusion, encompassing data on access to and usage of financial services by firms and households that can be compared across countries and over time. Contains 180 time series and 65 indicators that are expressed as ratios to GDP, land area, or adult population to facilitate cross-economy comparisons. Provision of FAS data is voluntary.

Data cited at: International Financial Statistics (IFS), The International Monetary Fund. The International Financial Statistics database covers about 200 countries and areas, with some aggregates calculated for selected regions, plus some world totals. Topics covered include balance of payments, commodity prices, exchange rates, fund position, government finance, industrial production, interest rates, international investment position, international liquidity, international transactions, labor statistics, money and banking, national accounts, population, prices, and real effective exchange rates. The International Financial Statistics is based on various IMF data collections. It includes exchange rates series for all Fund member countries plus Anguilla, Aruba, China, PR: Hong Kong, China, PR: Macao, Montserrat, and the Netherlands Antilles. It also includes major Fund accounts series, real effective exchange rates, and other world, area, and country series. Data are available for most IMF member countries with some aggregates calculated for select regions, plus some world totals. National Accounts, Indicators of Economic Activity, Labor Markets, Prices, Government and Public Sector Finance, Financial Indicators, Balance of Payments, International Investment Position, International Reserves, Fund Accounts, External Trade, Exchange Rates, and Population.

The Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity is an innovative single framework that integrates the concept of international reserves and foreign currency liquidity by covering data on on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet international financial activities of country authorities as well as supplementary information. It aims to provide a comprehensive account of official foreign currency assets and drains on such resources arising from various foreign/domestic currency liabilities and commitments of the authorities.

  Note that all data series (public investment and capital stock, private investment and capital stock, GDP, etc.) are expressed in billions of constant 2017 international dollars (purchasing power parity adjusted), using the corresponding component-specific deflators from OECD, Eurostat, PWT, and WB databases mentioned above. We have added a "current cost" series for the public, private, and PPP capital stocks in this data update.

The Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS) database contains the aggregated surveys covering: i) Central Bank ii) Depository Corporations and iii) Other Financial Corporations. The key macroeconomic aggregates in this dataset include: i) Monetary base and broad money; ii) Credit aggregates (including credit to the private sector); and iii) Foreign assets and liabilities.   Beginning in 2009, there are two presentations of Monetary Statistics in IFS. The new presentation data follows the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) and the Monetary and Financial Statistics Compilation Guide (MFSCG), a companion to the MFSM that contains more detailed coverage of the classification, economic sectorization, valuation, and recording of financial assets and liabilities in an economy. The MFSCG gives prominence to the source data for monetary and financial statistics.   The majority of countries use the standardized report forms (SRFs) to report monetary data to the IMF and are presented under SRF Countries.   The old presentation is used for those countries that do not use the SRFs for reporting Monetary data and presented under Non-SRF Countries. The presentation of these countries will be changed to the new presentation when the countries implement the reporting of SRF-based data.   The Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (Manual) updates and merges into one volume methodological and practical aspects of the compilation process for monetary and financial statistics (MFS). Aimed at compilers and users of MFS, it offers a conceptual framework for the collection, compilation, and analytical presentation of monetary data, which provide a critical input for monetary policy formulation and monitoring.   Detailed monetary statistics based on the standardized report forms reflecting the conceptual framework of the above Manual and its predecessors.

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among those emerging market and developing economies that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policymakers in these countries is whether commodity windfall gains and losses influence potential output or merely trigger transient fluctuations of actual output around an unchanged trend for potential output. The analysis in this chapter suggests that both actual and potential output move together with the commodity terms of trade but that actual output commoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract almost 1 percentage point annually from the average rate of economic growth in commodity exporters over 2015–17 as compared with 2012–14. In exporters of energy commodities, the drag is estimated to be larger: about 2¼ percentage points on average over the same period. The projected drag on the growth of potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

Citation: Source: International Monetary Fund - https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices 

This dataset covers only Cross-Country-Concepts - Portfolio Investment related indicators. Please visit  Principal Global Indicators - Data by Indicator  for other set of Principal Global Indicators. 

The Principal Global Indicators (PGI) dataset provides internationally comparable data for the Group of 20 economies (G-20) and economies with systemically important financial sectors that are not members of the G-20. The PGI facilitates the monitoring of economic and financial developments for these jurisdictions. Launched in 2009, the PGI website is hosted by the IMF and is a joint undertaking of the Inter-Agency Group of Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG).

Private fixed investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the global financial crisis, and there has been little recovery since. Investment has generally slowed more gradually in the rest of the world. Although housing investment fell especially sharply during the crisis, business investment accounts for the bulk of the slump, and the overriding factor holding it back has been the overall weakness of economic activity. In some countries, other contributing factors include financial constraints and policy uncertainty. These findings suggest that addressing the general weakness in economic activity is crucial for restoring growth in private investment.

This chapter finds that potential output growth across advanced and emerging market economies has declined in recent years. In advanced economies, this decline started as far back as the early 2000s and worsened with the global financial crisis. In emerging market economies, in contrast, it began only after the crisis. The chapter’s analysis suggests that potential output growth in advanced economies is likely to increase slightly from current rates as some crisis-related effects wear off, but to remain below precrisis rates in the medium term. The main reasons are aging populations and the gradual increase in capital growth from current rates as output and investment recover from the crisis. In contrast, in emerging market economies, potential output growth is expected to decline further, owing to aging populations, weaker investment, and lower total factor productivity growth as these economies catch up to the technological frontier.

The Board of Governors, the highest decision-making body of the IMF, consists of one governor and one alternate governor for each member country. The governor is appointed by the member country and is usually the minister of finance or the governor of the central bank. All powers of the IMF are vested in the Board of Governors. The Board of Governors may delegate to the Executive Board all except certain reserved powers. The Board of Governors normally meets once a year. At the present time all 190 members are participants in the Special Drawing Rights Department. Voting power varies on certain matters pertaining to the General Department with use of the Fund's resources in that Department. These countries have accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 of the Articles of Agreement. This figure may differ from the sum of the percentages shown for individual countries because of rounding. 

Sub-Saharan Africa: Regional Economic Outlook October 2023

Economic and Financial of Somalia

This database covers the universe of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2009, and also includes data on the resolution and fiscal and economic costs of banking crises. Note: Laeven, Luc and Fabian Valencia, 2010, Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, IMF working paper 10/146.

The World Commodity Exporters Database is a collection of key macro-fiscal  indicators covering 52 countries that are exporters of oil, gas, and metals (such as copper, gold, iron, and silver), where these commodities represent a large share of exports (20 percent or more of total exports) or fiscal revenues. The dataset was compiled from the following sources:  International Financial Statistics (IFS), Balance of Payments Statistics, Direction of Trade Statistics, World Economic Outlook, and FAD’s fiscal rules. Data for all variables of interest are collected on an annual basis from 1970 to 2014, where available.

Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down.

The risks to global growth are broadly balanced and a soft landing is a possibilityGlobal growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down. With disinflation and steady growth, the likelihood of a hard landing has receded, and risks to global growth are broadly balanced. On the upside, faster disinflation could lead to further easing of financial conditions. Looser fiscal policy than necessary and than assumed in the projections could imply temporarily higher growth, but at the risk of a more costly adjustment later on. Stronger structural reform momentum could bolster productivity with positive cross-border spillovers. On the downside, new commodity price spikes from geopolitical shocks––including continued attacks in the Red Sea––and supply disruptions or more persistent underlying inflation could prolong tight monetary conditions. Deepening property sector woes in China or, elsewhere, a disruptive turn to tax hikes and spending cuts could also cause growth disappointments. Policymakers’ near-term challenge is to successfully manage the final descent of inflation to target, calibrating monetary policy in response to underlying inflation dynamics and—where wage and price pressures are clearly dissipating—adjusting to a less restrictive stance. At the same time, in many cases, with inflation declining and economies better able to absorb effects of fiscal tightening, a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation to rebuild budgetary capacity to deal with future shocks, raise revenue for new spending priorities, and curb the rise of public debt is needed. Targeted and carefully sequenced structural reforms would reinforce productivity growth and debt sustainability and accelerate convergence toward higher income levels. More efficient multilateral coordination is needed for, among other things, debt resolution, to avoid debt distress and create space for necessary investments, as well as to mitigate the effects of climate change.

The IMF’s World Revenue Longitudinal Data set (WoRLD) is a compilation of government tax and non-tax revenues from the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics and World Economic Outlook, and drawing on the OECD Revenue Statistics and Revenue Statistics in Latin American and the Caribbean.