International Monetary Fund

APD Regional Economic Outlook (REO) provides information on recent economic developments and prospects for countries in Asia and Pacific. Data for the REO for Asia and Pacific is prepared in conjunction with the semi-annual World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercises, spring and fall. Data are consistent with the projections underlying the WEO. REO aggregate data may differ from WEO aggregates due to differences in group membership. Composite data for country groups are weighted averages of data for individual countries. Arithmetic weighted averages are used for all concepts except for inflation and broad money, for which geometric averages are used. PPP GDP weights from the WEO database are used for the aggregation of real GDP growth, real non-oil GDP growth, real per capita GDP growth, investment, national savings, broad money, claims on the nonfinancial private sector, and real and nominal effective exchange rates. Aggregates for other concepts are weighted by GDP in U.S. dollars at market exchange rates.

Data cited at: Balance of Payments, The International Monetary Fund. The Balance of Payments provides a framework that is applicable for a range of economies, from the smallest and least developed economies to the more advanced and complex economies. As a result, it is recognized that some items may not be relevant in all cases. The balance of payments is a statistical statement that summarizes transactions between residents and nonresidents during a period. It consists of the goods and services account, the primary income account, the secondary income account, the capital account, and the financial account. Contains balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) data of individual countries, jurisdictions, and other reporting entities, and regional and world totals for major components of the balance of payments. Both balance of payments and IIP data are presented in accordance with the standard components of the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, BPM6. Balance of payments data are available for approximately 192 economies and international investment position data are available for approximately 152 economies.

Data cited at: Consumer price indexes, The International Monetary Fund Consumer price indexes (CPIs) are index numbers that measure changes in the prices of goods and services purchased or otherwise acquired by households, which households use directly, or indirectly, to satisfy their own needs and wants. In practice, most CPIs are calculated as weighted averages of the percentage price changes for a specified set, or ‘‘basket’’, of consumer products, the weights reflecting their relative importance in household consumption in some period. CPIs are widely used to index pensions and social security benefits. CPIs are also used to index other payments, such as interest payments or rents, or the prices of bonds. CPIs are also commonly used as a proxy for the general rate of inflation, even though they measure only consumer inflation. They are used by some governments or central banks to set inflation targets for purposes of monetary policy. The price data collected for CPI purposes can also be used to compile other indices, such as the price indices used to deflate household consumption expenditures in national accounts, or the purchasing power parities used to compare real levels of consumption in different countries.

Data cited at: Coordinated Direct Investment Survey, The International Monetary Fund. The CDIS database presents detailed data on "inward" direct investment positions (i.e., direct investment into the reporting economy) cross-classified by economy of immediate investor, and data on "outward" direct investment positions (i.e., direct investment abroad by the reporting economy) cross-classified by economy of immediate investment. The CDIS database contains breakdowns of direct investment position data, including, in most instances, separate data on net equity and net debt positions, as well as tables that present "mirror" data (i.e., tables in which data from the reporting economy are shown side-by-side with the data obtained from all other counterpart reporting economies).

Data cited at: Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), The International Monetary Fund. The Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) is a voluntary data collection exercise conducted under the auspices of the IMF. An economy provides data on its holdings of portfolio investment securities (data are separately requested for equity and investment fund shares, long-term debt instruments, and short-term debt instruments).   Worldwide portfolio holdings of equity and investment fund shares (31 USD trillion) at end-2017 surpasses holdings of debt securities (29.7 USD trillion). After the peak of the financial crisis in 2008, the annual growth rate of equity holdings has exceeded substantially that for debt securities holdings. That pattern is similar in all the economies with the largest cross border portfolio assets and liabilities. As per G20 emerging economies, while the holdings of equity and investment fund shares had already been consistently higher than those of debt securities, during the last five years the gap has widened even further.

Global growth is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions of the world. The distribution of risks to near-term global growth has become more balanced relative to the October World Economic Outlook but is still tilted to the downside. The decline in oil prices could boost activity more than expected. Geopolitical tensions continue to pose threats, and risks of disruptive shifts in asset prices remain relevant. In some advanced economies, protracted low inflation or deflation also pose risks to activity. The chapter takes a region-by-region look at the recent development in the world economy and the outlook for 2015, with particular attention to notable development in countries within each region.

Data cited at: Direction of Trade Statistics, The International Monetary Fund. The Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) presents current figures on the value of merchandise exports and imports dis-aggregated according to a country's primary trading partners. Area and world aggregates are included in the display of trade flows between major areas of the world. Reported data is supplemented by estimates whenever such data is not available or current. Imports are reported on a cost, insurance and freight (CIF) basis and exports are reported on a free on board (FOB) basis, with the exception of a few countries for which imports are also available FOB. Time series data includes estimates derived from reports of partner countries for non-reporting and slow-reporting countries.

Recent exchange rate movements have been unusually large, triggering a debate regarding their likely effects on trade. Historical experience in advanced and emerging market and developing economies suggests that exchange rate movements typically have sizable effects on export and import volumes. A 10 percent real effective depreciation in an economy’s currency is associated with a rise in real net exports of, on average, 1.5 percent of GDP, with substantial cross-country variation around this average. Although these effects fully materialize over a number of years, much of the adjustment occurs in the first year. The boost to exports associated with currency depreciation is found to be largest in countries with initial economic slack and with domestic financial systems that are operating normally. Some evidence suggests that the rise of global value chains has weakened the relationship between exchange rates and trade in intermediate products used as inputs into other economies’ exports. However, the bulk of global trade still consists of conventional trade, and there is little evidence of a general trend toward disconnect between exchange rates and total exports and imports.

The Global Debt Database (GDD) is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor. The dataset includes total gross debt of the (private and public) non financial sector for an unbalanced panel of 190 advanced economies, emerging market economies and low-income countries, dating back to 1950. For more details on the methodology and definitions, please refer to Mbaye, Moreno Badia and Chae (2018). 

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2023: Financial and Climate Policies for a High-Interest-Rate Era

Data cited at: International Financial Statistics (IFS), The International Monetary Fund. The International Financial Statistics database covers about 200 countries and areas, with some aggregates calculated for selected regions, plus some world totals. Topics covered include balance of payments, commodity prices, exchange rates, fund position, government finance, industrial production, interest rates, international investment position, international liquidity, international transactions, labor statistics, money and banking, national accounts, population, prices, and real effective exchange rates. The International Financial Statistics is based on various IMF data collections. It includes exchange rates series for all Fund member countries plus Anguilla, Aruba, China, PR: Hong Kong, China, PR: Macao, Montserrat, and the Netherlands Antilles. It also includes major Fund accounts series, real effective exchange rates, and other world, area, and country series. Data are available for most IMF member countries with some aggregates calculated for select regions, plus some world totals. National Accounts, Indicators of Economic Activity, Labor Markets, Prices, Government and Public Sector Finance, Financial Indicators, Balance of Payments, International Investment Position, International Reserves, Fund Accounts, External Trade, Exchange Rates, and Population.

The Principal Global Indicators (PGI) dataset provides internationally comparable data for the Group of 20 economies (G-20) and economies with systemically important financial sectors that are not members of the G-20. The PGI facilitates the monitoring of economic and financial developments for these jurisdictions. Launched in 2009, the PGI website is hosted by the IMF and is a joint undertaking of the Inter-Agency Group of Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG).

Private fixed investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the global financial crisis, and there has been little recovery since. Investment has generally slowed more gradually in the rest of the world. Although housing investment fell especially sharply during the crisis, business investment accounts for the bulk of the slump, and the overriding factor holding it back has been the overall weakness of economic activity. In some countries, other contributing factors include financial constraints and policy uncertainty. These findings suggest that addressing the general weakness in economic activity is crucial for restoring growth in private investment.

This chapter finds that potential output growth across advanced and emerging market economies has declined in recent years. In advanced economies, this decline started as far back as the early 2000s and worsened with the global financial crisis. In emerging market economies, in contrast, it began only after the crisis. The chapter’s analysis suggests that potential output growth in advanced economies is likely to increase slightly from current rates as some crisis-related effects wear off, but to remain below precrisis rates in the medium term. The main reasons are aging populations and the gradual increase in capital growth from current rates as output and investment recover from the crisis. In contrast, in emerging market economies, potential output growth is expected to decline further, owing to aging populations, weaker investment, and lower total factor productivity growth as these economies catch up to the technological frontier.

Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down.

The risks to global growth are broadly balanced and a soft landing is a possibilityGlobal growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down. With disinflation and steady growth, the likelihood of a hard landing has receded, and risks to global growth are broadly balanced. On the upside, faster disinflation could lead to further easing of financial conditions. Looser fiscal policy than necessary and than assumed in the projections could imply temporarily higher growth, but at the risk of a more costly adjustment later on. Stronger structural reform momentum could bolster productivity with positive cross-border spillovers. On the downside, new commodity price spikes from geopolitical shocks––including continued attacks in the Red Sea––and supply disruptions or more persistent underlying inflation could prolong tight monetary conditions. Deepening property sector woes in China or, elsewhere, a disruptive turn to tax hikes and spending cuts could also cause growth disappointments. Policymakers’ near-term challenge is to successfully manage the final descent of inflation to target, calibrating monetary policy in response to underlying inflation dynamics and—where wage and price pressures are clearly dissipating—adjusting to a less restrictive stance. At the same time, in many cases, with inflation declining and economies better able to absorb effects of fiscal tightening, a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation to rebuild budgetary capacity to deal with future shocks, raise revenue for new spending priorities, and curb the rise of public debt is needed. Targeted and carefully sequenced structural reforms would reinforce productivity growth and debt sustainability and accelerate convergence toward higher income levels. More efficient multilateral coordination is needed for, among other things, debt resolution, to avoid debt distress and create space for necessary investments, as well as to mitigate the effects of climate change.