Belarus: Will Political Unrest Benefit Global Potash Producers?

(19 August 2020) Workers at the state-owned potash mining company Beloruskali halted mining operations this week and joined a national strike to support protests over the results of the presidential election, strikes that together threaten the domestic economy with a slowdown comparable to the effect of COVID lockdowns around the world. As one of the world's biggest producers and exporters of potash fertilizers, the supply chain disruption created by the strike could also benefit other major potash players, including Uralkali (Russia), Potash Corp (Canada), and Mosaic (US). 

• Belarus controls up to 20 percent of the global production and export of potash—used by farmers to improve crop yields and resistance of plants to diseases, among other benefits that benefit global food supply and quality—and is a major supplier of potash fertilizer to India, Indonesia, China, and Brazil.
• A two-week strike at Beloruskali could reduce global production of potash by approximately 1 percent, which will be easily filled by other producers and existing inventories and avoid a market-moving effect globally.