(14 October 2021) The mid-term prospects for the development of the global economy look promising — the International Monetary Fund projects that almost 6% global GDP growth in 2021 and almost 5% growth in 2022 will be followed with annual growth above 3% in 2023 through 2026. However, uncertainty around inflation pressure and the pandemic situation are considered major risks for global growth. Here are the key takeaways from the October 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report:

  • October 2021 global growth projections by the IMF were nearly unchanged from the summer outlook. The global GDP growth estimate for 2021 has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.9%, underlining the negative impact of global supply chain disruptions and worsening pandemic dynamics. The forecast for 2022 global growth is unchanged, at 4.9%.
  • Looking into 2022, the IMF expects that commodity prices will stay at 2021 levels, while global food prices will see further increases.
  • In addition to commodity prices staying high, CPI inflation is expected to accelerate. In 2021–2022, the IMF anticipates annual CPI growth over 4% in more than 70 countries, compared to 54 countries in 2020 (out of 190 countries in the IMF's WEO Outlook database).
  • So far, the IMF considers the recent increases in inflation rates in the US, Europe, and many developing economies to be driven by temporary pandemic-induced supply-demand mismatches. The inflation pressure is expected to subside in 2022, though uncertainty around inflation prospects remains high.

Coronavirus Data and Insights

Live data and insights on Coronavirus around the world, including detailed statistics for the US, EU, and China — confirmed and recovered cases, deaths, alternative data on economic activities, customer behavior, supply chains, and more.

Related Insights from Knoema

The Rise in Global Inflation Threatens World Economy

The latest data on inflation from the World Bank shows that global inflation continues to accelerate. In May 2022, the world consumer price index (CPI) growth accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year. The last time year-over-year global inflation approached 8% was in 2008, when the world economy was stepping in the Great Recession. Knoema's global inflation heat map, based on the World Bank data, reveals the spread of inflation to more and more countries each month. In Dec 2019, among 107 countries in the World Bank's dataset, there were only 5 countries where year-over-year CPI growth...

The World's Largest Economy: China vs United States

Which is the world's largest economy, China or the United States? As is usual in the field of economics, “It depends.” It depends on the methods used to estimate the size of an economy and to compare one economy to another. Despite modern discussions on refining the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP), the standard measure of an economy’s size and performance, to be more inclusive of economic factors that have been ignored to date, such as environmental and natural resource depletion, there is no commonly accepted alternative to GDP. There are, however, at least two commonly...

How Deep an Economic Decline Can the World Expect in 2020?

For the first time during the post World War II era, the global economy is expected to shrink due to measures in force worldwide to suppress the coronavirus, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 14, 2020. In this edition of the WEO, the IMF shortened the forecast horizon to 2021 instead of the expected 2025 horizon and limited the number of indicators available in its statistical tables because of the high level of uncertainty in current global economic conditions. In the baseline scenario—which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of...

IMF Global Growth Projections | More Optimism Amidst New Fiscal Stimulus

(8 April 2021) Amid COVID-19 vaccination progress and new stimulus measures from the US government, IMF economists are predicting a shining near-term future for the global economy. Here are the key takeaways from the April 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report: The IMF now estimates 2020 growth to have been -3.3 percent, a 1.1 percentage point upward revision from its October 2020 projection. The outlook for 2021 improved by 0.8 percentage points, to 6%, based on expected additional fiscal support in the US and other large economies and anticipated...