(October 2019) China and the United States reached a partial trade deal on Friday, October 11, with the US agreeing to forgo further tariff escalation in exchange for China agreeing to resume purchases of US farm products. However, even if trade terms improve between the countries, recent preliminary figures released by China's customs office suggest Chinese exports hurt by the trade war will need time to recover to 2018 levels.
(17 April 2020) Chinese GDP contracted 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. While it is the first decline in the history of quarterly GDP growth records, which date back to 1993, annual GDP, which has a longer history, dropped below zero once before in 1976. It is still unclear whether the Chinese economy will register a decline at the end of 2020. According to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, China is among the critical few economies that are still projected to grow in 2020. China's rapid economic downturn is tied to...
Recent analysis from the IMF cites increasing uncertainty caused by trade tensions as a primary driver of sluggish global growth, a trend which moved the IMF to issue a downward revision to its global GDP growth forecast in the July edition of the World Economic Outlook. According to IMF estimates, the escalation of trade uncertainty observed this year could consume around 0.75 percentage points of global growth in 2019. To track trade tensions globally, the IMF and Stanford University teamed up to develop the World Trade Uncertainty Index (WTU).* This index measures trade...
Ask any American soybean farmer about current market conditions and US-China trade frictions will bubble up in the conversation. After the late June meeting between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Osaka, Trump assured American farmers that trade talks would resume and that China would buy a tremendous amount of food and agricultural products very soon. Yet, in the month since, no significant purchases have been announced and no information is publicly available on large purchases in the offing, especially now, as the trade-war escalated again with the new 10-percent...
Weeks after US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a temporary halt in the US-China trade war, the first positive signs of a return to normal trade relations are emerging. Last week, the China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) and fellow state-run Chinese enterprise Cofco bought more than 1.5 million tons of US soybeans, the first significant deal since the countries agreed to a 90-day truce from December 1, 2018, to March 1, 2019. The announcement caused a spike in soybean futures to $918.5 a bushel, the highest price since June. Soybeans were...
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