An error occured. Details Hide
You have unsaved pages. Restore Cancel

Brent crude oil prices will average $72.8 per barrel in 2018 and to $73.7 per barrel in 2019, according to the most recent forecast from the US Energy Information Administration's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (EIA). This reflects an upward revision of $9.5/barrel to the EIA forecast for 2018 compared to last month's Outlook.

  • The OECD Economic Outlook as of May 2018 was less bullish, pegging the real price of a barrel of Brent oil— i.e. price adjusted for inflationat $69.4/barrel in 2018.
  • Looking out to 2020, the IMF in its Primary Commodity Prices Projections released in July asserted that after modest growth in 2018, the nominal price of Brent crude will increase to $53.5/barrel by 2020 and West Texas Intermediate to $50.4/barrel.
  • The World Bank anticipates that all three major benchmark oil prices, Brent, WTI, and Dubai, will continue to increase after 2020 to reach $70 per barrel in 2030.

Oil price forecasts depend on the interaction between supply and demand for oil on international markets. Among the most important supply-side factors weighing on pricing expectations are US shale oil production, US crude oil stocks, and OPEC oil supply.

  • In May, OPEC announced that oil production cuts would be extended until March 2018. The agreement from OPEC, along with decreasing US crude oil inventories, has buoyed oil prices during the second half of 2017. By late September, Brent crude price reached $59.8/barrel, which was $16 higher than the lowest price so far this year ($44/bbl in June) and $14 higher than one year ago.
  • But, the robust recovery of US shale oil activity, which is expected to continue through October, is broadly expected to limit price gains in the future.
  • According to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, world oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2018, which is 0.1mb/d more than the increase expected from non-OPEC oil supply.

Download our latest ENERGY Data Brief

Download our one-page PDF full of live links to energy-related data, statistics, and dashboards from leading industry sources to support research and data-based decision making.

Related Data Insights

Is the World Running out of Diamonds?

From antiquity to 2015, about 5.4 billion carats of diamonds have been mined from the Earth's surface. While marketing suggests diamonds are rare, production and related sales trends globally suggest otherwise. During the last two decades, global diamond production averaged 134.6 million carats per year, a total production that exceeded what had previously been produced from the first diamond production records through 1993. In addition, despite relatively weak production of 125 million carats in 2014, industry analysts anticipate diamond production will increase to approximately 141 million carats by 2025. At this rate,...

Year-on-Year Commodities Prices | In Focus

  Among commodities a set of common macroeconomic forces influence and shape global price trends, including the strength of major international currencies and economic growth trends both globally and for specific major economies. Disparity among pricing trends for specific commodities, however, is normal and demonstrates how strongly influenced prices often are by commodity-specific factors, such as harvest yields, shipping and warehousing conditions, local export bans, and changes in taxation etc., that can outweigh general macroeconomics forces.        How to use this dashboard:  Explore the most recent and...

Aluminium Prices Forecast: Long Term 2018 to 2030 | Data and Charts

Aluminum price decline by 5.1 percent in March 2018 compared to the previous month and grew by 8.8 percent from a year ago. The price of aluminum rose to record levels since June 2015, well over $2,069 per metric ton. Such fall was driven by the significant growth of production in March 2018 when total production of aluminum increase to 5,482,000 metric tons from 4,960,000 metric tons in February 20178 This situation is related to some extent to politics in China and higher prices of coal and other energy products. At this time, aluminum production in China reduced to 2,070,000 metric tons. It is the lowest value since...

Coal Prices Forecast: Long Term, 2018 to 2030 | Data and Charts

Since January 2016, when the price of coal reached a 10-year low, coal prices have rebounded by about 100 percent. Several factors have contributed to this price rebound. First, as part of China's effort to reduce harmful emissions the world's largest coal consumer and producer, reduced its domestic production and increased its imports. Second, the Indian coal industry faced hard times as miner strikes led to a crisis within the domestic industry, sending coal prices soaring. Leading international agencies have contributed contrasting perspectives on the future of coal prices:The World Bank in its October 2017 commodity...