BP | Oil has Passed Its Peak

(15 September 2020) Reverberations went miles deep yesterday when bp announced in its eagerly anticipated annual outlook that oil demand growth has reached its peak. Pointing to COVID-19, electrification of road transport, the increasing share of renewables, and improvements in energy efficiency, bp said it is unlikely that the world economy will ever again return to pre-coronavirus levels and consume more than 100 million b/d.

• The 2020 Outlook takes a more pessimistic stance relative to a year ago, shaving 5-8 Mb/d from last year's estimates for 2040.
• In bp's 'Business as Usual Scenario', oil demand for the next two decades will represent a “broadly horizontal line” at 100 Mb/d. If instead the world moves to a 'Rapid Transition Scenario' global oil demand will decrease by 50 percent in 2050 to 52 Mb/d. Achievement of 'Net Zero Emissions' would drive consumption down by a game changing 70 percent to 30 Mb/d in 2050.
• According to bp's 10-year strategy released in early August, during the next 10 years bp plans to reduce oil and gas production by 40 percent and investment about $5 billion a year on low carbon initiatives, including construction of one of the world's largest renewable energy facilities.