(15 September 2020) Reverberations went miles deep yesterday when bp announced in its eagerly anticipated annual outlook that oil demand growth has reached its peak. Pointing to COVID-19, electrification of road transport, the increasing share of renewables, and improvements in energy efficiency, bp said it is unlikely that the world economy will ever again return to pre-coronavirus levels and consume more than 100 million b/d.

  • The 2020 Outlook takes a more pessimistic stance relative to a year ago, shaving 5-8 Mb/d from last year's estimates for 2040.
  • In bp's 'Business as Usual Scenario', oil demand for the next two decades will represent a “broadly horizontal line” at 100 Mb/d. If instead the world moves to a 'Rapid Transition Scenario' global oil demand will decrease by 50 percent in 2050 to 52 Mb/d. Achievement of 'Net Zero Emissions' would drive consumption down by a game changing 70 percent to 30 Mb/d in 2050.
  • According to bp's 10-year strategy released in early August, during the next 10 years bp plans to reduce oil and gas production by 40 percent and investment about $5 billion a year on low carbon initiatives, including construction of one of the world's largest renewable energy facilities.

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