Brent crude oil price will average at $52.4 per barrel in 2017 and increase to $54.1 per barrel in 2018 according to the most recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook released monthly. EIA revised up its forecast for 2018 by 2.5 dollars per barrel from the previous release.
However, the real price of a barrel of Brent oil - i.e. price adjusted for inflation - will slightly decrease to $50 in 2018 as predicted by OECD in its June's Economic Outlook.
After a modest growth in 2018 though, the nominal price of Brent crude will increase to $53.5 a barrel by 2020, as per IMF's Primary Commodity Prices Projections released in July. So will do the West Texas Intermediate oil prices which are expected to rise to $50.4 by 2020 after a slight drop in 2018.
The average price of Brent, WTI, and Dubai crude oil will continue to rise after 2020 to reach $80 per barrel in 2030 according to the World Bank's commodity forecast.
Oil price forecasts depend on the interaction between supply and demand for oil on international markets. Among the most important supply-side factors are the US shale oil production, US crude oil stocks and OPEC oil supply.
In May, OPEC announced that oil production cuts will be extended till March 2018. This, along with decreasing US crude oil inventories, led oil prices up in the second half of 2017. Thus, on September 26, Brent crude price reached 59.8 dollars per barrel which is 16 dollars higher than this year's low of $44/bbl in June and 14 dollars higher than a year ago. But the robust recovery of the US shale oil activity, which is expected to continue in October, will limit price gains in the future.
OPEC, in its Monthly Oil Market Report, anticipates that world oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2018 which is just 0.1mb/d higher than the increase in non-OPEC oil supply.
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