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Oil prices decreased by 19.3 percent during the previous year from 55.87 dollars per barrel in July 2015 to 45.07 dollars per barrel in July 2016 on account of strong supply from OPEC members and Russia, as well as expectations of higher export from Iran. Still, in the second quarter of 2016 oil prices saw robust rebound by almost 30 percent given the expected reduction in inventories in the second half of the year.

Leading international agencies make the following predictions of oil prices.

  • The World Bank estimated in its July 2016 commodity forecast report that the average spot price for crude oil will fall slightly further in 2016 to $43/bbl from $51/bbl in 2015. However, the World Bank has risen its 2016 forecast from $41 per barrel in previous assessment due to strong demand and supply disruptions in Canada and Nigeria in the second quarter.
  • The IMF's June report revealed a similar expected decline from $51.6/bbl in 2015 to $43.6/bbl in 2016 reflecting weak demand, supply outages and modest rebound in the number of rotary rigs in the US.
  • In September 2015, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research slashed its oil price forecast for 2016 to $49.5/bbl for the international benchmark Brent crude oil from $53.7/bbl in 2015, allowing for a short-term price decline to $20/bbl. View our visualization page for more details.
  • Global crude oil price forecasts from the Economist Intelligence Unit and the OECD are also provided in our visualizations below. According to EIU oil prices will go up in 2017 after oil consumption will exceed production.

Fluctuations in global crude oil prices have always been the focus of the economic and financial news. The higher crude oil prices rise, the more positive is the economic outlook for petroleum exporters. In contrast, those countries dependent on petroleum imports suffer to varying degrees from those same higher prices as import bills increase. Estimates for the price per barrel for crude oil from leading financial and multilateral institutions are thus closely monitored by governments, investors, and consumers alike.

View more energy statistics and visualizations related to energy, including the estimated breakeven cost of oil production by countrynatural gas price dynamics and insights from the BP Energy Outlook 2030, or dive deeper into historical commodity prices from the World Bank and IMF or commodity price forecasts. You can also explore with Knoema a variety of other critical commodities, including: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal

As you examine commodity prices and forecasts, you may also be interested in economic forecasts for the G20 countries across the following indicators: GDP growth | inflation | unemployment | government debt | current account balance | external debt.

Last updated: Tuesday, September 13, 2016