(14 June 2021) In 2020, the US unemployment rate averaged 8.1%, the highest annual rate since 2012. In January and February of last year, the unemployment rate in the United States stood at a 50-year low of 3.5%, but unemployment soared to 14.7% in April 2020 due to mass layoffs resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

US unemployment declined steadily in the second half of last year and has continued a gradual downward trend this spring. In May 2021 it reached 5.8%, which is 56% lower than the year before and equals the unemployment level of 2014.

Here are the US unemployment rate projections from the four leading sources:

  • According to the economic projections of the Federal Reserve, the unemployment rate in the US will average at 4.5% by the end of 2021 and pursue its fall in 2022 and 2023, reaching  3.8% and 3.5% levels correspondingly.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the unemployment rate will decrease to 5.8% in 2021 and continue to fall in the following two years, hitting the pre-pandemic level of 3.7% in 2023.
  • The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its current Economic Outlook expects the rate of unemployment to drop to 5.6% in 2021 and then remain on a downward trend, falling to 4.3% by 2022.
  • The European Commission in its spring Economic Forecast projects that the US unemployment rate will decline to 4.6% in 2021, and then to 3.4% in 2022, dropping below the unemployment rate before the pandemic.

For analysis of other G20 economies, select a country page:

US | Canada | Mexico | France | Germany | UK | Italy | Brazil | Argentina | Turkey | Australia | China | India | Japan | South Korea | Indonesia | Russia | South Africa | Saudi Arabia | EU | Euro Area

Or, select an economic indicator:

GDP Forecast | Inflation Forecast | Unemployment Forecast | Current Account Balance Forecast | Government Debt Forecast

Related Insights from Knoema

US GDP Growth Forecast 2019-2024 and up to 2060 | Data and Charts

In this dashboard, we have integrated the most recent medium and long-term forecasts of key economic indicators for G20 countries from major international organizations, namely, the World Bank, IMF, United Nations, OECD, European Commission and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The data presented covers projections of real GDP growth, characterizing each country's output of final goods and services; consumer price inflation, as a measure of price level movements; unemployment rate, or percent of those willing and able to work but cannot find it; current account balance, providing an...

UK & US: Best Cities and Jobs for Job Seekers

Employees choose employers, just as employers choose employees. And, companies like Glassdoor make it easier than ever for people to move beyond annual salary and statistics on the highest paying jobs—none of which they may even be qualified for—in their evaluation of potential employers. Through regular surveys of employees, Glassdoor develops city-based job satisfaction ratings that account for work-life balance, cost of living, and competition among employees or, in other words, hiring opportunities. Glassdoor then ranks the most desirable cities for employment based on its...

Trump Administration Work Visa Policy by Numbers

The US H-1B visa program that allows educated foreign professionals to work in the United States is taking a hit under the Trump Administration. In 2019, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) denied about 15 percent of H-1B visa petitions, a notable shift from 2015 when the denial rate was 4 percent, a rate second only to L-1A and L-1B visas, which now have a 28 percent denial rate. The Administration’s “put American workers first” policy seeks to improve Americans' welfare by reducing the inflow of low-paid labor. Toward that end, within the realm of work visas, the...

LinkUp | US Real Estate Contracting Under Weight of COVID-19

The real estate world has taken its share of the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, as people empty out of offices, hotels, and malls and work from their homes. Economic activity in construction and real-estate contracted sharply this year under the weight of the pandemic, with the largest decline yet recorded in April, according to the US Federal Reserve. LinkUp jobs data suggests the situation in the real estate industry will remain tough in June. In the three months between February and April, new private housing building permits in the United States declined 30 percent compared...