Enemies of the (US) State & Who to Blame Come November

(27 August 2020) How would you define an enemy of your country? Would it surprise you to learn that in a recent survey 20 percent of US adults said they consider Mexico to be an enemy of the United States? Perhaps more pressing, come November 3, when the votes are tallied, will it be China, Russia, North Korea, Iran or others in the crosshairs for US foreign policy and maybe even accusations of election interference?

• Russia and North Korea are likely targets of a challenger foreign policy posture if democrats win the day. According to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, 78 and 77 percent of democrats, respectively, consider Russia and North Korea as enemies or unfriendly states.
• While Russia and North Korea made the list for republican respondents, too, Iran and China were of greater concern to this subset of respondents.  

Ultimately, foreign policy embodies an array of dynamics extending from, yes, counterintelligence and military threats, but also economic relations, trade, tourism, and global diplomatic, multilateral and humanitarian initiatives. Come November, these globally uniting multilateral and humanitarian themes may carry less weight if US leaders are convinced the election was swayed by fraud or foreign influence, as 75 percent of survey respondents indicated in August. And, then, who is likely to be blamed?

• Considering the results of the Economist/YouGov poll, the top US "enemies"—with a wide margin compared to other nations—would likely get a second look, particularly China should Republicans lose the White House given business (think, Huawei and TikTok) and economic (trade war) tensions have escalated under Trump.
• Democrats, based on even only recent history, would more likely look to Russia if evidence of election interference surfaces given events that unfolded following the 2016 elections.
• The intent or motivation of a foreign actor is of course only part of the equation; there must also be the capacity to intervene. Russia, China, and Iran each presumably represent strong counterintelligence threats. China, however, is uniquely capable in terms of capacity for digital-oriented threats because of the size, scale, and ownership model (many state-owned) of its ICT industry. China and the United States have the world's largest ICT sectors, generating almost $1 trillion of value added combined in 2017.