(21 August 2020) Did you know that the stock market has correctly predicted who would win each of the US presidential elections since 1984? More specifically, the performance of the S&P 500 Index on the eve of the election compared to its value three months prior has aligned 100% with each election outcome for the last nine presidential elections. Here's the rub - while the S&P 500 Index predicts the election results nobody can predict the index.
The current S&P 500 Index suggests President Trump is poised for a re-election win despite Biden's commanding advantage in the polls, and yet this is not 1984, 1996, 2016 or any other of the prior nine. 2020 is a year unlike any other. Considering the high degree of uncertainty about the future US economic recovery and existing market volatility, a reversal of trends in the markets within the next three months to then favor Biden would hardly come as a surprise.
(28 July 2020) The US general election is scheduled for November 3, 2020. It will result the election of either former Vice President Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States or the re-election of incumbent US President Donald Trump for a second term. Polling data from RealClearPolitics shows that during July President Trump reduced the polling gap to strengthen his position against Biden. According to the latest RealClearPolitics poll, 49.6% of respondents support Biden, 40.9% support Trump - an 8.67 percentage point gap. In June, according to the same polling...
Among the most pressing issues for the 2020 US presidential elections are healthcare, terrorism, gun policy, education, and the economy, according to an early 2020 Gallup survey. Around one third of American adults cited candidates' positions on these issues as 'extremely important' to their vote for president come November. While COVID and the health, employment, and general economic and social crises that have ensued this year have almost certainly changed the weight and perspective people may place on any one of these topics, as a collective, they are representative fo the...
(16 July 2020) In June 2020, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily in the United States was on the rise, surpassing previous peak figures in many states and triggering an increasing death toll in at least 10 states. Looking ahead to the November US presidential election, to avoid the possible COVID-19 health risks associated with large crowds at polling places, many states are preparing for an increase in vote-by-mail, leading us to wonder whether the US president elected in 2020 will become the first president elected mostly by mail. According to data from the midterm...
(29 October 2020) If you've been following the latest forecasts from The Economist and Columbia University, Donald Trump has a small probability (3.5%) of winning the electoral college to be re-elected in November. The model is designed to predict the chances of winning the electoral-college on election day, as Trump did in 2016 even though he failed to win the popular vote, and currently gives Joe Biden an 96 percent probability of defeating Donald Trump and better than 19 in 20 chances of winning the popular vote. Reliability of polling data doesn't stop the polling and it's...
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