(05 August 2021) The US consumer price inflation (CPI) index is probably the most tracked economic indicator today. The main question: whether the current inflation wave has been driven by temporary factors (as the Federal Reserves hopes) or is something that will turn into a long-term threat to U.S. economic growth.

Findings from the small business survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) can shed light on the near-term future.

  • According to the NFIB's small business actual price change indicator, which, when viewed with a six month time lag, can serve as a leading indicator predicting the CPI trend, the number of small businesses revising selling prices upwards has been growing since February 2021. The observed price hikes at small businesses may point to further inflation acceleration in the coming months.

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