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As part of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Energy and Financial Markets Initiative, the EIA is moving beyond its traditional coverage of the physical fundamentals of global oil markets to understand global energy prices moments. In addition to assessing factors such as energy consumption, production, inventories, spare production capacity, and geopolitical risks, EIA will now examine other influences, such as futures market trading activity, commodity investment, exchange rates, and equity markets.

Today's Viz of the Day describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets. The analysis explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices and includes regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

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United States: The World's Newest Major Exporter of Crude Oil

In June, US crude oil exports reached historic levels at nearly 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d), a level similar to that of Nigeria and Iran. From 1975 until late 2015, a federal ban on the export of US crude oil severely restricted crude oil exports to all countries except Canada. By lifting the ban, the US Government has transformed the United States into a major exporter of crude oil and a force that is reshaping global oil markets. To date in 2018, the United States has averaged more than 1.7 million b/d of crude oil exports while continuing to import an average of 7.9 million b/d.Although Canada remains an...

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2018, 2019 and Long Term to 2030

Brent crude oil prices will average $72.8 per barrel in 2018 and to $73.7 per barrel in 2019, according to the most recent forecast from the US Energy Information Administration's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (EIA). This reflects an upward revision of $9.5/barrel to the EIA forecast for 2018 compared to last month's Outlook.The OECD Economic Outlook as of May 2018 was less bullish, pegging the real price of a barrel of Brent oil— i.e. price adjusted for inflation—at $69.4/barrel in 2018.Looking out to 2020, the IMF in its Primary Commodity Prices Projections released in July asserted that after modest growth in 2018,...

Cost of Oil Production by Country

Global oil prices have fallen by more than 30 percent since the summer of 2014, affecting oil producers and consumers alike. This dashboard presents oil price dynamics and the breakeven oil prices—minimum oil price to cover general government expenditures—over the past decade as well as a snapshot of the marginal cost of oil production by country in 2014. A world oil price in the range of $55 to $60 per barrel is less than the cost of Russian Arctic oil production, European and Brazilian biofuel production, US and Canadian shale and tight oil production, and Brazilian presalt oil production. Sustained price...

Worldwide Oil and Gas Rig Count

Precipitated by the steep decline in global oil prices, the non-OPEC* active rig count fell in June to a new multi-year low at roughly 1,600 rigs, a 46 percent decrease since the end of 2014. The severity of the decline in drilling activity varies among countries and producing regions. While the United States and other developed countries have decreased dramatically the number of active rigs throughout the first half of 2015, the total number of active rigs among OPEC members has remained relatively steady with one notable exception: Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's share of total active rigs worldwide reached 6.9 percent in...