Europe: Mortality Rates Returning to Normal Levels

Mortality figures are not only returning to normal levels in Europe, but they are remarkably consistent with reported COVID-19 deaths. According to the latest weekly mortality statistics from EuroMOMO, as of the week of May 11, the total number of deaths in 20 European countries* was 51,033, which is in line with the highest end of the normal range and only slightly above the normal baseline level (49,913 deaths) for this week. 

• Between February and May, deaths exceeded the baseline level by 156,000 total deaths across the 20 European countries covered by EuroMOMO. This figure is very close to the reported COVID-19 death toll (155,000), suggesting that Europe's COVID-19 mortality figures are fairly reliable.
• Excess mortality is of course fundamental to periods of viral disease outbreaks. Comparing the weighted average mortality rates for Europe over the last three years to the rates from January to April 2020, the 2020 COVID-19 period rates exceed the average 2018 and 2019 mortality rates by more than 20,000 deaths.
• Z-scores offer us an alternative, standardized view of mortality trends across countries and time periods, measuring in this case the distance a country's mortality figures are from the mean. Using a multitude of approaches to analyzing COVID-19 figures is critical as we have already demonstrated in our coverage of COVID-19 statistics reported by Russia >

* EuroMOMO provides weekly mortality data for the following 20 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.